* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062016 07/16/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 52 56 60 67 74 79 80 80 80 74 69 61 56 52 47 V (KT) LAND 45 48 52 56 60 67 74 79 80 80 80 74 69 61 56 52 47 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 51 54 57 61 65 66 67 67 64 58 53 46 40 35 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 9 7 10 13 9 5 4 6 2 2 5 3 7 6 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 8 7 3 1 1 -1 3 0 6 2 0 -3 -3 1 0 SHEAR DIR 29 5 346 345 337 326 3 67 96 128 64 115 55 168 300 309 284 SST (C) 28.5 28.8 28.9 28.6 28.3 27.8 27.3 27.4 27.0 26.7 25.9 25.7 24.8 23.8 23.2 22.8 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 151 153 149 146 141 136 138 133 131 123 121 112 101 95 91 96 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.1 -52.2 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 79 77 75 74 73 74 76 74 72 68 64 57 55 51 50 50 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 27 28 28 31 34 34 34 35 35 33 31 26 23 21 17 850 MB ENV VOR 0 0 -4 -11 -1 -5 9 12 26 44 57 73 67 66 44 25 -2 200 MB DIV 89 106 120 128 97 24 84 76 21 19 12 -6 -22 -1 -12 2 0 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -7 -8 -6 -1 1 0 7 6 4 5 0 4 0 4 6 LAND (KM) 615 659 708 740 740 766 831 914 1002 1138 1297 1419 1571 1723 1844 1895 1897 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.6 17.0 17.4 17.9 18.2 18.4 18.8 19.3 20.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.4 110.1 110.8 111.6 112.3 113.8 115.4 117.1 118.9 120.9 123.1 125.4 127.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 11 12 12 12 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 21 27 30 30 26 11 6 7 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. 11. 9. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 13. 14. 15. 10. 8. 1. -2. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 22. 29. 34. 35. 35. 35. 29. 24. 16. 11. 7. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.8 109.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062016 ESTELLE 07/16/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.64 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.34 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 108.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.73 5.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 93.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.81 -5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.32 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.24 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.85 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.1% 24.1% 19.3% 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.2% 13.8% Logistic: 3.0% 11.7% 7.5% 3.2% 0.6% 4.9% 3.6% 2.5% Bayesian: 2.5% 14.0% 13.2% 4.0% 0.2% 2.3% 1.0% 0.7% Consensus: 5.5% 16.6% 13.3% 7.2% 0.3% 2.4% 7.0% 5.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062016 ESTELLE 07/16/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##