* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/16/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 26 25 24 22 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 26 25 24 22 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 28 25 23 21 19 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 16 23 26 26 32 32 41 39 43 43 43 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 9 4 1 0 0 0 3 1 -1 0 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 288 282 286 281 270 252 260 255 249 252 246 242 229 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.0 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.4 25.6 25.2 25.6 25.4 25.6 25.0 25.8 24.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 113 115 115 115 117 119 115 120 118 120 114 123 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -54.2 -55.0 -55.5 -56.0 -56.1 -56.2 -56.1 -56.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 41 42 42 41 40 40 41 39 41 44 49 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 15 15 15 14 14 14 14 12 12 11 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 24 27 31 37 36 42 45 53 51 40 36 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -11 -21 -22 -7 -1 -8 10 16 15 5 4 15 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 8 6 5 6 3 5 6 13 5 6 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1241 1137 1035 937 843 686 554 440 372 342 473 720 995 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.3 22.5 22.7 22.9 23.1 23.5 24.0 24.4 24.8 25.3 25.9 26.7 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 143.2 144.3 145.4 146.5 147.6 149.7 151.9 154.2 156.6 159.2 162.0 165.0 167.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 12 12 13 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 706 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 18. 16. 15. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. -1. -8. -19. -30. -39. -44. -47. -49. -52. -59. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -15. -22. -33. -40. -46. -49. -54. -59. -66. -72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 22.3 143.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/16/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.48 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.11 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 224.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.73 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.36 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/16/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##