* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/15/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 85 85 85 83 78 73 67 64 61 56 52 50 49 52 54 55 V (KT) LAND 85 85 85 85 83 78 73 67 64 61 56 52 50 49 52 54 55 V (KT) LGEM 85 86 85 84 82 74 67 62 60 58 53 49 47 46 47 49 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 5 6 7 5 2 2 1 2 4 7 5 10 8 12 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -1 0 -2 -3 0 0 0 0 3 -4 0 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 43 68 64 32 65 73 96 42 226 237 243 232 251 260 266 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.5 25.7 24.7 24.2 25.6 24.8 24.4 25.8 26.1 26.5 26.5 26.6 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 133 134 132 130 128 120 110 105 120 111 107 122 125 129 129 130 132 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -53.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 70 67 65 63 59 55 53 50 52 48 47 45 43 42 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 27 28 28 26 25 25 25 26 25 23 23 22 24 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 57 61 67 70 83 80 103 97 115 99 96 89 91 83 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 23 12 26 22 -13 -10 4 -10 2 0 0 -2 -1 -8 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -1 -3 -2 0 0 4 1 0 4 6 6 4 1 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1284 1328 1378 1440 1501 1596 1737 1898 2080 2047 1794 1532 1271 1012 768 538 340 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.9 17.2 17.4 17.6 18.0 18.2 18.4 18.7 18.8 18.9 18.9 18.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.0 121.9 122.8 123.7 124.6 126.4 128.4 130.5 132.8 135.3 137.7 140.2 142.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 4 8 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -12. -18. -22. -26. -30. -33. -34. -35. -37. -39. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 13. 12. 12. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -2. -7. -12. -18. -21. -24. -29. -33. -35. -36. -33. -31. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 16.6 121.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/15/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.16 1.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.70 4.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.29 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 420.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.44 -2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.0% 19.5% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 6.9% 5.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/15/16 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##