* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/15/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 81 81 81 81 78 74 70 65 63 61 57 55 53 55 57 58 V (KT) LAND 80 81 81 81 81 78 74 70 65 63 61 57 55 53 55 57 58 V (KT) LGEM 80 81 81 81 80 76 70 65 60 59 58 54 49 46 46 47 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 11 6 7 6 5 5 4 1 4 9 5 5 2 10 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -2 -1 -3 -2 -2 -1 3 4 6 0 2 0 5 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 23 30 28 43 57 47 360 360 18 332 196 237 241 266 231 253 200 SST (C) 27.2 26.9 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.4 25.0 24.4 25.4 25.9 25.4 25.4 26.1 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 136 133 134 133 131 127 113 107 118 123 118 118 125 129 129 129 131 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.6 -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 7 700-500 MB RH 68 70 70 67 65 62 59 57 55 53 54 50 49 47 46 44 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 28 28 28 29 28 27 27 26 26 26 26 25 23 23 24 23 850 MB ENV VOR 55 59 63 69 79 77 84 88 112 101 105 88 86 81 83 85 81 200 MB DIV 30 29 37 35 11 -16 -3 -2 -13 -9 4 5 -16 -13 -3 14 14 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -5 -1 -3 -1 0 0 0 -3 3 7 8 1 0 3 3 LAND (KM) 1232 1277 1329 1387 1450 1588 1695 1839 2010 2205 1960 1706 1433 1173 913 654 415 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.3 16.5 16.8 17.0 17.3 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.1 18.2 18.4 18.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.5 120.5 121.5 122.5 123.5 125.5 127.3 129.3 131.5 133.8 136.2 138.6 141.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 10 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 8 4 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 5 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -8. -13. -17. -20. -23. -25. -27. -28. -29. -31. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -6. -10. -15. -17. -19. -23. -25. -27. -25. -23. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 16.0 119.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/15/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.22 2.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.66 4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.32 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 410.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.45 -2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.3% 20.8% 17.7% 13.7% 9.9% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 1.9% 0.9% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.8% 7.6% 6.2% 4.7% 3.4% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/15/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##