* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/15/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 84 87 89 89 87 82 77 71 66 63 59 56 53 55 55 57 V (KT) LAND 80 84 87 89 89 87 82 77 71 66 63 59 56 53 55 55 57 V (KT) LGEM 80 84 86 86 85 80 74 69 63 59 58 56 53 50 49 49 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 11 10 8 10 5 7 4 2 1 7 8 12 8 9 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -1 -2 -4 -3 -2 2 0 3 -1 0 -2 0 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 28 33 35 30 34 41 15 360 3 360 282 242 281 272 298 281 272 SST (C) 28.0 27.4 27.1 26.9 26.5 25.7 25.0 24.7 24.5 25.8 25.9 25.3 26.2 26.4 26.5 26.4 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 145 138 135 133 129 120 113 110 108 122 123 117 126 128 129 128 129 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -51.6 -52.0 -51.8 -52.4 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 68 67 70 69 67 65 60 59 56 57 54 55 51 48 47 46 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 28 29 28 29 28 28 27 26 27 26 26 24 25 24 25 850 MB ENV VOR 57 56 60 74 76 78 76 77 92 100 102 94 85 73 75 67 62 200 MB DIV 41 31 27 40 45 -26 -18 -20 17 4 -7 10 -5 -34 -14 23 4 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -6 -3 -2 -3 0 0 1 -2 3 7 7 5 2 0 1 LAND (KM) 1187 1232 1286 1344 1407 1547 1659 1789 1946 2129 2077 1833 1571 1288 1026 797 559 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.2 16.4 16.6 16.8 17.2 17.4 17.6 17.8 17.9 18.1 18.3 18.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.6 119.7 120.8 121.8 122.8 124.8 126.6 128.5 130.6 132.8 135.1 137.4 139.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 11 11 11 11 12 12 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 18 8 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 3 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -8. -13. -18. -21. -23. -26. -27. -28. -30. -32. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 9. 7. 2. -3. -9. -14. -17. -21. -24. -27. -25. -25. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 15.9 118.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/15/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.24 2.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.63 4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 408.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.45 -3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 4.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.7% 24.8% 20.2% 15.7% 11.2% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 2.6% 1.3% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.3% 9.5% 7.2% 5.5% 3.9% 4.4% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/15/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##