* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/14/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 39 37 34 29 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 42 39 37 34 29 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 42 40 37 34 29 26 23 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 16 14 13 10 10 17 31 33 38 42 47 47 43 37 37 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 4 6 0 1 0 2 0 -3 0 -2 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 244 262 281 302 323 298 282 278 284 283 271 265 257 246 267 328 352 SST (C) 23.8 24.0 24.5 24.6 24.4 24.5 25.0 25.0 25.7 25.2 25.6 25.4 25.7 24.9 25.8 24.5 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 101 103 108 109 107 108 113 114 120 115 120 118 122 113 123 109 119 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.6 -54.1 -54.0 -53.7 -54.1 -54.9 -55.7 -56.1 -56.0 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.6 -1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 4 5 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 59 56 52 47 45 45 42 41 39 42 44 45 44 44 41 42 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 22 22 21 17 15 15 14 13 12 10 10 9 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 43 42 43 41 41 35 27 38 46 33 37 31 30 25 10 -5 -42 200 MB DIV 14 7 9 10 -5 -13 -13 -15 -7 0 -19 -7 -11 -4 -21 11 6 700-850 TADV 11 15 16 13 4 3 8 6 2 1 3 3 3 4 2 4 5 LAND (KM) 2049 1938 1830 1717 1606 1365 1118 896 698 553 422 351 300 413 639 922 1213 LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.6 21.0 21.3 21.5 21.9 22.2 22.6 22.9 23.3 23.7 24.2 24.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 135.2 136.3 137.3 138.4 139.5 141.9 144.4 146.8 149.1 151.2 153.4 155.8 158.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 11 11 12 11 11 10 10 11 12 13 14 13 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -6. -13. -20. -26. -31. -35. -40. -45. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. -16. -16. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -11. -16. -21. -26. -33. -41. -47. -53. -58. -63. -66. -74. -81. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 20.1 135.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/14/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.28 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.21 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 290.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.30 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/14/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##