* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/14/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 37 34 33 28 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 41 37 34 33 28 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 41 37 35 32 28 25 22 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 12 13 12 11 8 14 26 29 31 37 43 41 42 42 34 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 0 0 4 8 3 0 2 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 248 243 258 273 294 298 285 276 266 273 276 267 263 254 242 259 324 SST (C) 24.8 23.9 24.1 24.7 24.8 24.2 24.9 24.9 25.5 25.4 25.6 25.7 25.6 25.3 25.6 25.7 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 112 102 104 110 111 105 113 113 119 117 119 121 120 117 121 122 112 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.7 -54.3 -54.1 -53.9 -54.4 -54.9 -55.3 -55.3 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 700-500 MB RH 62 59 56 51 46 45 44 43 40 41 42 44 44 45 44 45 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 24 23 23 20 17 15 15 14 13 12 12 10 10 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 30 47 44 44 40 31 26 32 43 48 50 44 47 43 30 24 -5 200 MB DIV 29 17 16 12 1 -5 -6 -10 -3 -4 -2 -12 -2 -3 -9 -14 -23 700-850 TADV 9 11 17 18 14 0 7 5 6 4 5 4 7 2 6 4 3 LAND (KM) 2150 2043 1933 1825 1718 1495 1245 1002 787 619 471 357 292 275 435 696 983 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.2 20.6 21.0 21.3 21.7 22.0 22.3 22.7 23.1 23.5 23.8 24.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 134.2 135.3 136.3 137.4 138.4 140.6 143.1 145.6 148.0 150.2 152.5 154.7 157.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 11 12 12 11 11 10 11 11 13 14 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -4. -9. -15. -20. -24. -29. -33. -39. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -11. -13. -15. -16. -16. -15. -15. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -11. -12. -17. -22. -28. -32. -38. -43. -48. -52. -57. -60. -65. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.7 134.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/14/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.30 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.44 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 274.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.39 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.28 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/14/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##