* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/13/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 39 35 31 29 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 39 35 31 29 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 38 33 30 27 23 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 10 13 13 11 13 24 33 32 39 41 46 44 46 38 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 0 -1 0 5 7 2 1 0 -2 -1 -3 -1 1 5 SHEAR DIR 263 235 232 238 253 283 279 265 268 262 283 270 262 256 242 240 263 SST (C) 25.2 24.7 23.9 24.0 24.5 24.3 24.6 24.8 24.9 25.5 25.3 25.7 25.4 25.9 25.3 26.3 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 116 110 102 103 108 106 110 112 112 118 116 120 117 123 117 128 123 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -53.1 -53.9 -54.4 -54.1 -54.2 -54.9 -55.3 -55.7 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 3 4 4 5 5 6 7 700-500 MB RH 62 60 58 54 50 43 45 44 46 42 44 47 48 46 46 45 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 27 25 25 22 19 18 16 15 14 13 12 12 11 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 33 39 51 45 42 38 35 36 46 55 47 44 47 53 45 45 31 200 MB DIV 26 28 25 24 2 -11 -16 -10 -7 -13 -1 -19 -1 2 0 12 25 700-850 TADV 6 11 17 19 16 5 0 9 0 3 0 3 5 2 3 7 10 LAND (KM) 2090 2143 2048 1944 1841 1619 1383 1133 917 728 568 427 341 275 288 487 741 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.8 20.3 20.8 21.2 21.8 22.3 22.7 23.1 23.4 23.6 23.9 24.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 133.3 134.3 135.2 136.2 137.2 139.4 141.8 144.4 146.8 149.1 151.3 153.6 155.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 11 12 12 11 10 11 10 11 11 13 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -4. -10. -16. -21. -26. -30. -36. -42. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -2. -4. -8. -12. -16. -17. -19. -19. -19. -17. -17. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -10. -14. -16. -20. -26. -32. -39. -44. -51. -56. -61. -65. -70. -75. -76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.3 133.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/13/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.30 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.44 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.28 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 260.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.23 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/13/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##