* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/13/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 70 75 80 88 91 89 86 76 71 65 60 56 54 53 52 V (KT) LAND 60 65 70 75 80 88 91 89 86 76 71 65 60 56 54 53 52 V (KT) LGEM 60 64 67 71 74 81 84 84 80 73 67 62 58 54 50 48 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 8 8 9 9 12 8 8 4 5 7 6 8 9 11 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 0 -2 -4 -3 -3 0 -1 0 -1 -1 -4 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 36 39 41 21 19 40 37 58 28 2 290 271 229 232 256 267 273 SST (C) 28.7 28.2 27.9 28.0 27.6 27.3 26.4 26.3 25.6 24.7 24.6 25.3 25.5 24.9 25.3 26.1 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 147 144 145 141 137 128 127 119 110 109 116 119 113 118 126 120 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -51.5 -52.2 -51.7 -52.4 -52.0 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 72 70 68 65 67 69 70 68 65 62 61 57 53 49 49 43 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 25 25 26 28 29 29 30 27 27 26 24 23 22 22 22 850 MB ENV VOR 40 49 57 62 62 65 58 80 84 81 82 87 79 69 65 57 55 200 MB DIV 43 57 67 64 42 70 30 34 -19 -8 6 24 0 -16 -6 -9 -1 700-850 TADV -2 -2 0 -1 -2 -4 -5 -2 -5 -2 0 6 2 5 3 9 1 LAND (KM) 868 907 948 1002 1068 1223 1332 1477 1617 1727 1853 1995 2157 1961 1664 1360 1046 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.3 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.7 16.1 16.4 16.8 17.2 17.6 18.1 18.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.9 113.0 114.1 115.3 116.5 118.9 121.1 123.3 125.3 127.3 129.3 131.4 133.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 11 13 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 20 13 10 12 14 18 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 41.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 6. 6. 5. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 5. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 20. 28. 31. 29. 26. 16. 11. 5. 0. -4. -6. -7. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 15.2 111.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/13/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.49 6.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.50 4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.46 4.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 256.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.62 -5.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 7.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 5.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.11 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.68 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.2% 39.0% 30.5% 20.1% 12.9% 18.0% 15.9% 11.5% Logistic: 9.1% 21.3% 11.6% 6.7% 4.4% 2.3% 0.8% 1.4% Bayesian: 2.3% 11.0% 3.6% 1.5% 0.8% 3.2% 0.5% 0.0% Consensus: 8.8% 23.8% 15.2% 9.4% 6.0% 7.8% 5.7% 4.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/13/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##