* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/13/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 56 51 47 43 37 30 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 56 51 47 43 37 30 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 57 52 48 44 37 32 28 25 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 9 11 13 13 9 15 26 31 34 39 42 43 43 46 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 2 2 0 0 4 5 3 0 0 -1 2 0 -2 0 3 SHEAR DIR 262 251 222 225 231 265 280 250 265 268 270 274 263 261 252 238 237 SST (C) 24.8 24.9 24.7 23.8 23.7 24.4 24.2 24.8 24.8 25.2 25.4 25.5 25.7 25.7 25.3 26.0 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 112 112 110 101 100 107 105 112 112 116 118 118 121 121 117 124 123 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -53.4 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.6 -55.0 -55.3 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 67 64 62 60 56 47 45 44 45 45 44 46 47 46 47 48 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 27 26 26 24 24 21 18 17 16 15 15 13 13 11 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 28 22 30 43 38 33 31 31 41 51 56 55 50 49 47 35 30 200 MB DIV 34 19 18 22 24 10 -10 -2 -9 3 -2 13 -5 -4 -5 5 9 700-850 TADV 6 7 11 17 18 15 1 7 5 6 3 4 6 6 6 8 10 LAND (KM) 1970 2031 2097 2090 1986 1763 1535 1299 1058 834 641 486 353 278 232 359 560 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.5 20.0 20.5 21.0 21.8 22.3 22.6 22.8 23.1 23.3 23.6 23.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 131.7 132.8 133.8 134.8 135.8 138.0 140.3 142.7 145.2 147.7 150.1 152.4 154.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -13. -15. -16. -18. -19. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -5. -10. -14. -19. -24. -29. -34. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -7. -12. -16. -17. -18. -17. -18. -17. -17. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -13. -17. -23. -30. -37. -44. -50. -56. -60. -66. -70. -75. -80. -81. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 18.9 131.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/13/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.17 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.50 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 303.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.26 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/13/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##