* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/13/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 62 69 74 79 86 90 90 86 82 77 69 65 61 57 57 54 V (KT) LAND 55 62 69 74 79 86 90 90 86 82 77 69 65 61 57 57 54 V (KT) LGEM 55 64 71 77 81 85 87 87 83 77 70 64 59 55 52 50 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 8 9 10 14 10 12 5 7 2 5 2 6 9 11 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 2 3 0 -2 -2 -3 -1 -1 0 -5 0 -5 -1 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 50 39 1 29 40 30 60 28 54 77 53 343 48 229 263 246 258 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.2 28.2 27.7 27.4 27.4 26.6 26.5 25.9 25.0 24.9 25.2 25.7 24.5 25.0 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 157 147 142 138 138 130 129 122 113 112 116 121 109 114 107 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.0 -51.7 -52.5 -51.9 -52.4 -52.1 -52.8 -52.4 -52.9 -52.4 -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 75 71 73 72 71 71 73 74 70 68 65 60 56 53 49 49 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 23 24 25 26 27 29 28 28 27 26 25 23 21 21 18 850 MB ENV VOR 18 25 31 45 50 47 51 54 73 84 84 78 79 76 52 55 42 200 MB DIV 67 64 66 86 53 33 67 34 13 -13 -13 -23 -2 -1 -20 1 17 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -2 -2 -1 -5 -2 -4 -2 -5 0 0 6 3 7 8 3 LAND (KM) 678 769 859 902 958 1084 1232 1349 1476 1606 1720 1837 1971 2125 1977 1725 1469 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.5 15.4 15.4 15.3 15.4 15.6 15.9 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.6 18.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.9 111.0 112.0 113.2 114.3 116.6 118.9 121.1 123.2 125.1 127.1 129.1 131.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 10 10 11 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 33 32 23 13 8 16 23 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 40.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. -0. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 8. 12. 13. 13. 12. 9. 7. 5. 2. 2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 19. 24. 31. 35. 35. 31. 27. 22. 14. 10. 6. 2. 2. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.5 109.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/13/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.59 10.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 11.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.46 6.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 6.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 168.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.72 -8.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 10.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.19 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.77 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 33% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 3.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 33.5% 49.0% 45.0% 36.8% 20.3% 17.7% 19.0% 12.7% Logistic: 11.1% 23.5% 16.2% 9.4% 4.6% 5.4% 3.1% 3.8% Bayesian: 7.3% 18.9% 11.1% 4.5% 1.7% 4.4% 1.3% 0.0% Consensus: 17.3% 30.5% 24.1% 16.9% 8.9% 9.2% 7.8% 5.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/13/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##