* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/12/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 54 61 67 74 82 86 86 85 79 73 70 66 63 62 61 V (KT) LAND 45 49 54 61 67 74 82 86 86 85 79 73 70 66 63 62 61 V (KT) LGEM 45 51 57 63 68 75 80 84 84 79 72 65 61 57 54 51 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 12 11 10 9 11 8 13 8 7 3 4 1 6 5 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -2 0 0 -2 -1 0 -1 -1 0 -1 0 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 54 66 62 65 61 43 61 75 43 75 47 45 324 8 261 263 262 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.5 28.8 27.9 27.6 27.5 26.9 26.6 26.5 25.6 25.3 25.0 25.8 25.5 24.9 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 160 153 144 141 139 133 130 128 119 116 113 122 119 113 116 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.3 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 77 74 71 71 69 67 68 70 72 70 67 65 61 59 56 52 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 17 19 22 22 25 26 27 28 26 24 24 23 21 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR 12 17 24 39 53 57 60 72 73 89 82 84 81 86 61 59 44 200 MB DIV 44 68 75 68 72 64 44 61 21 26 -13 -7 25 16 -21 3 9 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -3 -2 -2 -2 1 1 3 2 6 2 LAND (KM) 614 709 805 870 920 1057 1206 1328 1444 1580 1698 1788 1902 2045 2129 1863 1600 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.6 15.5 15.5 15.4 15.2 15.3 15.5 15.8 16.1 16.5 17.0 17.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.3 110.4 111.4 112.6 113.7 115.9 118.2 120.3 122.3 124.3 126.1 127.9 129.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 11 12 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 30 34 29 18 10 14 28 13 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 14. 13. 12. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 9. 13. 16. 18. 15. 11. 10. 8. 5. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 16. 22. 29. 37. 41. 41. 40. 34. 28. 25. 21. 18. 17. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.7 109.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/12/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.70 7.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 6.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.50 4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.51 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 128.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.77 -6.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 4.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.21 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.87 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.9% 31.6% 25.9% 19.0% 11.9% 15.3% 27.5% 16.7% Logistic: 5.5% 17.5% 9.8% 4.7% 3.6% 2.8% 0.9% 4.1% Bayesian: 2.7% 12.3% 3.9% 1.1% 0.4% 2.2% 2.5% 0.5% Consensus: 7.7% 20.4% 13.2% 8.3% 5.3% 6.8% 10.3% 7.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/12/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##