* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/12/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 77 73 69 65 56 48 41 32 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 77 73 69 65 56 48 41 32 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 76 72 66 61 52 44 39 33 28 25 22 20 18 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 2 4 4 9 15 16 16 16 29 32 34 38 44 44 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 0 0 2 -1 0 0 4 4 1 1 2 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 303 301 198 230 223 198 240 263 283 270 283 282 274 277 266 257 258 SST (C) 25.8 25.4 25.0 25.0 25.1 24.8 23.8 24.1 24.1 25.0 25.0 25.3 25.5 25.1 25.4 25.5 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 121 118 113 113 115 111 101 104 104 113 113 117 119 115 118 119 117 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -51.5 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -53.0 -53.5 -53.8 -54.1 -54.5 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 72 71 72 70 68 61 55 47 43 41 43 43 40 39 38 37 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 32 31 30 29 26 26 24 22 19 18 17 19 17 15 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 45 47 50 60 50 48 44 37 34 39 41 44 58 62 61 38 28 200 MB DIV 37 36 52 45 26 18 15 8 -17 -3 -9 5 -6 -1 -34 -17 -38 700-850 TADV 0 2 5 7 7 8 15 12 5 5 5 8 4 0 -2 2 0 LAND (KM) 1842 1870 1903 1943 1988 2112 1955 1742 1523 1296 1084 875 687 531 425 387 425 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.1 17.7 18.3 18.9 20.0 20.9 21.7 22.2 22.5 22.7 23.0 23.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 128.1 129.1 130.0 131.0 131.9 134.0 136.1 138.2 140.4 142.7 144.9 147.2 149.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 11 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -14. -19. -24. -27. -30. -32. -34. -36. -38. -41. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. -0. -4. -8. -12. -17. -22. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -15. -19. -21. -21. -17. -17. -18. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -15. -24. -32. -39. -48. -56. -61. -65. -65. -71. -76. -82. -86. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 16.5 128.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/12/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.08 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.73 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 286.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.28 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 5.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/12/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##