* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/12/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 84 82 80 76 68 58 50 43 34 30 25 24 23 19 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 84 82 80 76 68 58 50 43 34 30 25 24 23 19 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 84 81 76 70 60 52 44 38 33 30 27 26 24 22 19 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 2 1 3 3 9 13 15 14 18 25 29 33 38 41 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 0 2 1 3 2 0 -1 0 4 2 2 3 1 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 340 330 315 106 235 214 210 256 289 302 295 292 279 274 283 269 259 SST (C) 25.9 26.1 25.8 25.1 25.2 25.5 24.0 24.4 24.1 24.7 25.2 25.2 25.7 25.1 25.7 25.4 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 122 125 121 114 115 119 103 107 104 110 116 116 121 115 121 118 119 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -51.5 -51.9 -52.3 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.6 -53.0 -53.8 -53.9 -54.3 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 71 70 70 71 69 62 58 49 42 40 42 40 37 38 38 36 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 33 32 31 30 27 25 24 23 19 18 17 17 19 17 16 13 850 MB ENV VOR 59 52 55 57 62 45 56 45 49 38 44 42 58 69 71 66 44 200 MB DIV 70 36 36 50 42 2 15 5 -3 -15 -11 -4 -6 11 -14 -11 -41 700-850 TADV -2 0 2 4 7 7 13 12 8 2 7 3 8 5 1 2 1 LAND (KM) 1848 1869 1897 1929 1967 2068 2048 1820 1597 1365 1138 898 683 515 384 317 286 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.4 16.9 17.5 18.0 19.2 20.2 21.0 21.6 21.9 22.2 22.4 22.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 127.4 128.3 129.2 130.1 131.0 133.0 135.2 137.4 139.6 141.9 144.2 146.7 149.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -15. -21. -26. -30. -33. -36. -38. -40. -42. -44. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 2. -1. -5. -9. -13. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -17. -19. -19. -17. -14. -14. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -9. -17. -27. -35. -42. -51. -55. -60. -61. -62. -66. -71. -76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 15.8 127.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/12/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.06 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.74 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 318.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.30 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 6.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/12/16 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##