* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE EP052016 07/12/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 40 47 53 67 76 80 83 81 82 82 77 74 68 66 62 V (KT) LAND 30 34 40 47 53 67 76 80 83 81 82 82 77 74 68 66 62 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 43 53 63 70 74 76 76 75 72 67 60 55 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 10 10 9 11 6 12 10 9 8 2 1 2 3 5 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 1 0 -2 0 1 0 0 0 -3 0 0 -2 -1 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 56 42 42 54 63 52 57 38 60 53 56 43 170 211 142 191 254 SST (C) 29.3 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.2 28.8 28.0 27.7 27.3 26.7 26.7 26.1 25.2 24.8 24.2 24.0 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 154 153 155 157 153 145 141 137 131 131 124 115 111 105 103 98 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -53.0 -52.0 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.2 -52.9 -52.5 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 79 77 78 76 73 72 66 65 67 70 70 70 65 63 60 59 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 15 16 20 23 23 25 25 27 28 26 27 24 24 22 850 MB ENV VOR 15 7 5 17 28 32 53 62 70 73 78 85 86 87 90 81 73 200 MB DIV 44 45 46 57 56 52 49 19 42 20 38 17 40 -2 -8 3 -20 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -1 0 -1 0 3 -1 -2 -5 -4 -3 0 0 3 6 3 LAND (KM) 443 460 491 562 638 787 880 1016 1152 1261 1394 1528 1634 1758 1908 2090 1965 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.9 16.1 16.2 16.2 16.1 16.1 16.2 16.4 16.7 17.1 17.6 18.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.5 107.3 108.1 109.1 110.0 112.1 114.3 116.6 118.8 120.8 122.9 125.0 127.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 34 26 23 28 37 26 11 11 10 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 44.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 27. 28. 28. 27. 26. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 18. 18. 20. 20. 16. 15. 11. 10. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 11. 6. 1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 17. 23. 37. 46. 50. 53. 51. 52. 52. 47. 44. 38. 36. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.6 106.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052016 FIVE 07/12/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.82 7.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.51 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.43 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 43.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.86 -5.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.27 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.56 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.0% 26.0% 18.9% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% 17.0% 18.2% Logistic: 4.2% 22.7% 10.2% 4.7% 2.5% 9.4% 11.3% 17.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 18.3% 5.3% 1.5% 0.3% 4.6% 4.5% 1.9% Consensus: 5.1% 22.3% 11.5% 6.7% 0.9% 4.7% 10.9% 12.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 FIVE 07/12/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##