* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/12/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 86 87 86 83 77 66 57 47 42 33 30 28 29 26 23 19 V (KT) LAND 85 86 87 86 83 77 66 57 47 42 33 30 28 29 26 23 19 V (KT) LGEM 85 86 85 82 79 70 60 50 43 37 34 32 31 30 28 25 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 9 10 12 10 19 21 26 32 28 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 1 2 2 4 -1 0 -4 0 1 3 3 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 29 37 22 66 95 200 185 220 267 307 320 301 290 282 277 282 264 SST (C) 26.8 26.7 26.8 26.4 25.9 25.9 24.2 23.6 24.9 24.8 25.2 25.3 25.8 25.5 25.8 25.9 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 132 128 123 123 105 99 112 111 116 117 122 119 122 123 125 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -53.0 -53.6 -54.0 -54.3 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.8 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 70 70 72 72 71 66 58 52 44 39 37 37 34 31 30 29 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 32 33 32 30 28 26 24 22 21 16 15 15 17 15 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR 53 57 56 62 65 64 51 52 51 60 46 48 45 59 60 59 45 200 MB DIV 75 61 32 23 42 17 15 17 -5 -14 -3 -11 2 8 4 -4 -15 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 1 5 13 11 11 0 4 2 3 1 2 1 1 LAND (KM) 1828 1863 1897 1931 1970 2055 2159 1934 1704 1467 1223 963 714 484 307 162 80 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.6 17.0 18.1 19.1 19.9 20.6 21.0 21.3 21.6 21.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 126.6 127.5 128.4 129.3 130.2 132.1 134.2 136.3 138.5 140.8 143.2 145.8 148.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 13 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 4 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -12. -19. -24. -28. -31. -34. -36. -37. -39. -41. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 2. -1. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -10. -15. -17. -22. -22. -21. -17. -17. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. -2. -8. -19. -28. -38. -43. -52. -55. -57. -56. -59. -62. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 15.3 126.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/12/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.14 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.72 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 301.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.1% 21.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.4% 12.2% 4.6% 3.2% 0.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.3% 11.2% 1.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/12/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##