* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/11/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 84 87 88 89 89 84 76 65 59 54 48 45 45 43 40 39 V (KT) LAND 80 84 87 88 89 89 84 76 65 59 54 48 45 45 43 40 39 V (KT) LGEM 80 84 85 85 85 81 75 66 56 50 45 42 41 40 39 37 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 9 9 9 4 2 2 3 4 6 7 11 10 11 14 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -4 -2 0 1 3 1 1 -2 -1 0 2 4 6 4 SHEAR DIR 60 17 29 38 42 61 82 210 185 250 293 314 306 301 290 269 264 SST (C) 27.7 27.0 26.7 26.9 27.0 26.0 26.0 24.2 23.6 24.9 24.8 25.2 25.3 25.8 25.5 25.8 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 141 134 131 133 134 123 124 105 99 112 111 116 117 122 119 122 123 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -51.3 -51.7 -51.9 -51.3 -51.9 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -52.4 -52.3 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 71 70 70 72 72 72 70 67 61 53 49 44 40 39 37 40 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 32 33 31 33 33 31 29 27 26 25 23 22 22 20 19 18 850 MB ENV VOR 60 60 60 67 67 68 64 56 43 48 54 51 47 46 55 55 54 200 MB DIV 52 52 72 50 24 46 18 10 14 6 -3 -11 3 6 5 11 11 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -4 -2 -2 -1 0 8 12 17 7 9 2 5 -1 3 2 LAND (KM) 1717 1785 1854 1888 1927 1994 2079 2160 1934 1704 1468 1214 963 724 503 332 186 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.8 16.1 17.0 18.0 19.0 19.9 20.6 21.1 21.4 21.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 125.0 126.0 127.0 127.9 128.8 130.5 132.3 134.2 136.3 138.5 140.8 143.3 145.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 10 9 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 21 9 3 4 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -7. -12. -18. -21. -25. -27. -29. -31. -33. -35. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -11. -11. -10. -10. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 4. -4. -15. -21. -26. -32. -35. -35. -37. -40. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 15.0 125.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/11/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.23 2.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.71 5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.43 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 297.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.58 -3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 4.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.3% 25.4% 20.2% 15.7% 11.2% 13.5% 10.3% 0.0% Logistic: 7.9% 9.8% 3.4% 2.3% 1.2% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 3.7% 3.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.9% 12.8% 8.1% 6.1% 4.2% 4.8% 3.6% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/11/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##