* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/11/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 77 84 89 93 95 92 87 75 65 58 51 48 44 43 43 44 V (KT) LAND 70 77 84 89 93 95 92 87 75 65 58 51 48 44 43 43 44 V (KT) LGEM 70 76 81 84 85 84 80 74 66 57 51 46 43 41 40 41 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 4 9 14 10 5 1 2 3 3 4 4 9 8 3 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -4 -6 -2 -1 0 2 0 1 0 0 -1 -1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 58 54 37 23 34 41 27 64 147 242 303 325 335 340 353 316 301 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 27.1 26.3 26.3 26.4 25.8 25.9 24.6 23.9 25.0 24.7 24.9 25.2 25.7 25.8 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 135 127 126 127 121 122 109 102 113 110 113 116 121 121 124 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -51.2 -52.0 -51.4 -51.8 -51.2 -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 71 71 71 71 72 74 72 71 66 63 57 52 48 44 42 41 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 32 34 35 36 35 34 34 31 29 28 26 26 24 23 23 24 850 MB ENV VOR 53 67 68 68 69 71 67 60 51 51 45 48 46 47 46 51 56 200 MB DIV 61 68 55 53 66 38 48 27 9 0 -7 0 -3 -6 10 7 38 700-850 TADV 0 0 -3 -5 -4 0 -2 1 9 12 12 10 10 3 5 2 2 LAND (KM) 1561 1641 1726 1799 1866 1950 2027 2120 2120 1914 1693 1466 1220 954 711 489 287 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.0 15.1 15.3 15.5 16.1 17.0 17.9 18.8 19.7 20.3 20.8 21.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 122.9 124.1 125.2 126.3 127.3 129.1 130.9 132.7 134.6 136.5 138.6 140.8 143.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 23 24 11 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 497 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 43.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -19. -21. -23. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 4. 5. 2. -0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 6. 1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 19. 23. 25. 22. 17. 5. -5. -12. -19. -22. -26. -27. -27. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 14.9 122.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/11/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.32 4.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 7.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.74 8.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.49 5.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 271.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.61 -6.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 7.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 6.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 3.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 41.2% 44.0% 35.4% 25.0% 19.7% 17.3% 13.8% 0.0% Logistic: 36.9% 43.4% 22.3% 18.1% 13.1% 5.8% 1.9% 0.4% Bayesian: 18.7% 18.2% 8.0% 4.1% 1.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 32.3% 35.2% 21.9% 15.7% 11.3% 7.9% 5.2% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/11/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##