* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032016 07/09/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 39 32 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 39 32 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 39 33 28 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 15 16 19 23 26 30 35 37 42 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 12 15 12 9 10 10 8 10 7 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 230 230 220 222 225 223 237 248 249 269 284 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.2 23.6 23.4 23.7 24.0 24.4 24.6 24.8 25.3 25.7 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 104 98 96 99 102 107 109 111 116 120 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.8 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 44 42 41 39 36 34 33 31 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 19 17 15 13 10 7 6 4 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -4 -5 -7 -11 -4 0 21 16 17 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 27 15 4 0 -16 0 -11 3 -17 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 9 12 7 4 4 1 4 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2006 2034 2060 1993 1896 1688 1458 1218 987 765 534 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.5 20.9 21.2 21.4 21.6 21.5 21.2 20.9 20.6 20.2 19.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 133.1 134.0 134.8 135.8 136.7 138.7 140.9 143.2 145.4 147.5 149.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -3. -8. -15. -23. -30. -32. -34. -34. -36. -39. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -13. -19. -24. -25. -26. -25. -23. -20. -18. -17. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -20. -25. -33. -42. -50. -59. -66. -73. -75. -77. -80. -83. -88. -92. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 20.5 133.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032016 BLAS 07/09/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.23 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 38.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 405.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.46 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032016 BLAS 07/09/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##