* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/09/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 50 57 64 77 86 94 94 92 87 82 77 69 63 61 59 V (KT) LAND 40 44 50 57 64 77 86 94 94 92 87 82 77 69 63 61 59 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 45 48 52 64 79 89 91 86 79 72 63 55 50 47 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 5 5 8 8 5 5 7 12 10 5 3 2 2 3 5 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -1 -4 -1 2 0 -2 0 0 -1 1 0 0 2 3 SHEAR DIR 250 11 49 72 85 62 343 70 45 59 54 108 67 336 344 348 277 SST (C) 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.4 27.8 28.0 26.8 26.5 26.0 25.8 24.5 24.2 24.4 25.0 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 143 145 148 149 150 149 143 145 132 129 124 122 109 106 108 114 116 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.2 -52.7 -51.3 -51.9 -50.9 -52.1 -51.3 -51.7 -51.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.8 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 77 77 77 76 75 75 75 76 77 74 74 73 70 63 59 53 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 21 23 23 26 31 35 36 37 36 35 35 32 29 29 28 850 MB ENV VOR 27 29 27 33 41 50 69 66 66 68 60 61 51 43 44 35 39 200 MB DIV 104 94 109 102 90 87 105 61 62 46 49 31 22 10 12 20 20 700-850 TADV -1 -2 0 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -1 -1 2 6 12 7 5 12 LAND (KM) 1111 1132 1161 1211 1269 1400 1533 1670 1799 1888 1982 2098 2073 1808 1520 1227 940 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.2 14.5 14.8 15.2 15.8 16.5 17.4 18.4 19.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.6 114.6 115.6 116.7 117.8 120.0 122.4 124.6 126.7 128.7 130.7 132.8 135.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 11 11 12 13 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 15 16 18 22 34 51 22 21 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 52.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 19. 18. 16. 15. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 11. 18. 21. 23. 22. 19. 17. 12. 8. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 9. 14. 13. 7. 2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 17. 24. 37. 46. 54. 54. 52. 47. 42. 37. 29. 23. 21. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.5 113.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/09/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.66 9.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.71 7.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.69 7.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 72.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.83 -8.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 4.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 5.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.18 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 3.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 58% is 9.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 51% is 10.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.1% 49.2% 34.4% 21.1% 12.8% 19.1% 57.8% 50.8% Logistic: 9.2% 45.1% 25.3% 17.9% 7.4% 28.8% 26.4% 10.6% Bayesian: 0.8% 8.5% 7.1% 2.6% 0.4% 7.2% 4.5% 3.8% Consensus: 8.0% 34.3% 22.3% 13.9% 6.9% 18.4% 29.6% 21.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/09/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##