* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032016 07/08/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 69 63 57 50 37 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 69 63 57 50 37 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 68 61 53 46 35 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 7 8 12 13 15 20 27 30 35 32 29 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 12 14 11 13 15 13 12 8 3 8 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 223 210 212 205 220 219 234 221 231 255 247 238 256 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.4 25.1 24.5 24.4 24.2 23.4 23.6 24.3 24.4 25.0 25.4 25.8 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 117 114 107 106 104 96 98 106 107 113 117 121 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.6 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 59 56 52 47 39 36 32 28 28 29 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 28 28 26 24 20 15 12 8 7 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 31 29 6 3 1 -19 -9 -5 14 12 15 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 70 65 51 47 34 -8 -11 -12 -1 -6 -21 -38 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 13 17 23 18 14 10 6 4 4 -5 -5 -7 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1886 1899 1916 1940 1968 2025 1936 1719 1499 1267 1056 868 681 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.9 19.5 20.1 20.7 21.3 21.5 21.4 21.1 20.5 20.0 19.6 19.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 130.2 130.9 131.5 132.2 132.8 134.4 136.3 138.4 140.5 142.7 144.7 146.5 148.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -15. -19. -23. -25. -27. -29. -31. -33. -36. -38. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -16. -18. -19. -20. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -7. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -14. -22. -29. -32. -34. -32. -31. -28. -25. -23. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -18. -25. -38. -51. -62. -72. -79. -85. -86. -90. -92. -94. -98.-101. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 18.2 130.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032016 BLAS 07/08/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.06 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.45 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 499.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.35 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032016 BLAS 07/08/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##