* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032016 07/08/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 80 75 68 60 47 33 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 80 75 68 60 47 33 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 79 71 63 56 42 32 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 10 9 11 14 12 19 22 29 33 34 31 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 11 13 9 16 13 13 8 1 5 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 212 224 190 184 198 222 227 215 224 243 252 220 241 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 25.4 25.1 24.5 24.4 23.6 23.6 24.0 24.4 24.7 25.1 25.6 26.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 117 114 107 106 98 98 102 107 110 114 119 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -51.8 -51.9 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 59 57 54 52 43 38 32 30 27 28 28 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 30 29 27 24 21 17 13 9 6 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 28 36 33 7 -3 -10 -24 -10 -2 14 8 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 40 75 71 59 40 14 -8 -4 0 -8 -11 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 15 17 23 18 11 6 9 4 1 -6 -3 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1886 1895 1909 1927 1949 1994 2010 1805 1586 1344 1122 910 700 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.3 18.9 19.6 20.2 21.2 21.7 21.8 21.6 21.1 20.6 20.1 19.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 129.7 130.4 131.0 131.7 132.3 133.8 135.6 137.6 139.7 142.0 144.1 146.1 148.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -14. -20. -25. -30. -34. -37. -39. -41. -44. -46. -49. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. -18. -19. -19. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -5. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -13. -22. -29. -34. -35. -35. -32. -29. -26. -24. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -17. -25. -38. -52. -65. -76. -85. -91. -95. -97. -99.-101.-105.-109. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 17.6 129.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032016 BLAS 07/08/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.08 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.45 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 543.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.30 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032016 BLAS 07/08/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##