* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032016 07/08/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 86 80 74 68 52 37 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 86 80 74 68 52 37 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 83 76 69 60 46 34 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 8 12 10 10 16 17 23 28 33 37 41 38 35 28 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 6 11 13 12 17 12 9 5 7 6 9 5 10 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 168 215 215 200 195 213 204 217 213 228 244 237 239 263 258 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.9 25.5 25.5 25.2 24.7 24.2 23.3 23.8 24.1 24.5 25.1 25.2 25.7 26.0 26.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 118 118 115 109 105 95 100 104 108 114 116 121 124 127 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.3 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 63 60 58 56 46 40 36 32 28 28 31 30 27 28 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 31 30 28 28 23 19 14 11 8 6 4 5 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 36 28 36 38 4 -1 -17 -11 -5 9 19 17 13 7 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 41 44 67 68 52 30 2 -2 -1 25 -15 -34 -42 -27 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 14 19 18 20 15 15 10 12 1 0 -5 -8 -7 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1858 1874 1894 1910 1931 1993 2026 1901 1689 1454 1217 978 736 495 257 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.7 18.2 18.8 19.4 20.7 21.6 22.2 22.4 22.3 22.1 21.8 21.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 128.9 129.6 130.3 131.0 131.6 133.1 134.8 136.7 138.8 141.1 143.4 145.7 148.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 10 11 10 11 11 11 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -14. -21. -28. -34. -38. -42. -44. -46. -48. -49. -52. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -7. -11. -15. -20. -23. -25. -25. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -6. -5. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -2. -2. -5. -11. -20. -27. -32. -34. -34. -31. -30. -28. -25. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -10. -16. -22. -38. -53. -67. -78. -88. -95.-101.-104.-110.-113.-116.-120. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 17.1 128.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032016 BLAS 07/08/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.15 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.44 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 500.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.35 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 3.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032016 BLAS 07/08/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##