* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032016 07/07/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 101 97 90 85 72 59 44 30 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 105 101 97 90 85 72 59 44 30 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 99 91 84 76 63 52 40 29 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 6 9 7 6 12 14 17 22 21 25 32 36 39 40 34 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 4 4 4 8 12 13 14 12 11 6 6 6 5 14 17 SHEAR DIR 316 181 108 132 179 157 174 187 217 219 236 258 256 249 256 241 239 SST (C) 27.0 26.8 26.6 25.9 25.4 25.1 24.7 23.4 23.9 24.4 24.7 24.9 25.2 25.3 25.8 26.2 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 133 131 129 122 117 113 109 96 101 106 110 112 115 115 121 125 124 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.3 -51.0 -51.8 -52.0 -51.2 -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.5 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 64 64 67 65 63 59 51 44 38 34 29 26 30 31 31 34 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 36 35 32 32 31 28 24 19 14 10 8 6 5 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 29 43 60 61 49 51 25 18 9 6 4 1 20 15 19 18 20 200 MB DIV 46 60 59 49 58 66 53 29 -3 -8 -5 -16 -15 -17 -18 2 -9 700-850 TADV 5 6 6 7 7 12 21 13 8 9 2 6 -4 0 -6 -2 3 LAND (KM) 1773 1802 1834 1851 1871 1917 1987 2046 1968 1765 1550 1326 1124 943 753 549 365 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.5 16.8 17.3 17.8 18.9 20.0 20.9 21.6 21.9 22.0 22.0 22.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 126.7 127.5 128.3 129.0 129.7 131.1 132.6 134.2 136.0 138.0 140.1 142.3 144.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 8 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -9. -16. -25. -34. -43. -49. -54. -58. -60. -62. -64. -67. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. -0. -2. -5. -9. -13. -17. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -3. -3. -4. -7. -15. -23. -31. -35. -37. -35. -33. -31. -29. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -15. -20. -33. -46. -61. -75. -88. -97.-104.-109.-115.-120.-125.-128. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 16.1 126.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032016 BLAS 07/07/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.45 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 521.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.33 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.26 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032016 BLAS 07/07/16 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 5 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##