* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032016 07/07/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 109 107 104 100 88 74 61 50 38 29 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 110 109 107 104 100 88 74 61 50 38 29 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 110 106 101 94 88 74 61 49 39 30 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 2 5 6 7 4 14 12 12 14 17 23 33 33 34 38 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 6 7 8 10 8 10 15 14 13 10 4 7 2 4 3 SHEAR DIR 197 106 112 110 101 128 137 185 199 229 231 239 237 251 255 263 256 SST (C) 28.0 27.5 27.0 26.7 26.5 25.1 24.7 24.2 23.8 24.2 24.3 24.6 24.9 25.0 25.0 25.4 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 144 139 134 130 128 114 109 104 100 104 105 109 111 112 111 116 118 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 -51.5 -50.8 -51.8 -51.0 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 64 64 65 64 67 63 58 50 43 38 32 27 25 26 26 25 24 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 33 32 34 34 32 30 27 24 19 15 12 10 9 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 32 38 39 45 56 55 58 43 22 15 9 7 12 22 17 23 26 200 MB DIV 85 74 66 55 56 63 67 36 9 8 -3 4 8 2 -7 -9 -29 700-850 TADV -1 0 3 6 6 8 15 25 19 13 12 4 8 0 3 -2 8 LAND (KM) 1680 1735 1780 1817 1857 1918 1973 2049 2096 1916 1736 1537 1349 1179 1031 905 782 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.8 16.1 16.4 16.7 17.6 18.7 19.7 20.7 21.5 22.1 22.4 22.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 125.0 125.9 126.8 127.7 128.5 130.1 131.6 133.1 134.7 136.5 138.3 140.3 142.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 18 9 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -16. -25. -35. -44. -51. -57. -62. -64. -66. -69. -72. -76. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 2. -1. -5. -9. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. 0. -2. -4. -10. -15. -21. -26. -30. -29. -27. -25. -24. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -10. -22. -36. -49. -60. -72. -81. -89. -94.-100.-105.-111.-117. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 15.5 125.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032016 BLAS 07/07/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.36 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 534.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.31 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.04 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.27 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.8% 13.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 1.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 5.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032016 BLAS 07/07/16 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 28 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##