* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032016 07/06/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 123 127 128 126 112 98 89 76 67 55 46 38 32 26 20 16 V (KT) LAND 115 123 127 128 126 112 98 89 76 67 55 46 38 32 26 20 16 V (KT) LGEM 115 122 124 123 119 102 85 73 61 49 39 30 24 21 18 16 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 3 5 7 7 10 5 10 10 6 5 6 16 24 28 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 -3 0 9 11 11 11 15 17 12 7 2 2 1 2 SHEAR DIR 24 47 50 50 62 77 61 86 136 185 222 247 222 259 283 274 251 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.8 28.7 28.0 26.2 26.2 25.9 25.9 24.1 24.2 24.6 24.7 24.8 25.2 25.2 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 153 152 144 125 125 122 122 104 105 109 110 111 114 114 118 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -51.2 -51.8 -51.1 -52.3 -51.3 -52.3 -52.0 -52.5 -52.7 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 71 68 68 67 65 65 66 65 60 50 40 32 24 21 19 21 24 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 33 34 35 36 35 32 33 29 27 23 20 15 13 10 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 29 29 26 31 34 38 46 49 52 54 39 41 27 17 2 3 4 200 MB DIV 92 111 73 59 61 37 63 46 62 45 12 7 -2 -2 -16 -23 -32 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 -5 -3 1 4 7 15 27 21 7 5 4 4 1 0 LAND (KM) 1493 1547 1607 1669 1736 1840 1911 1987 2055 2150 1996 1788 1583 1381 1192 1021 841 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.6 14.8 15.1 15.3 15.9 16.5 17.1 18.1 19.2 20.1 20.7 21.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.2 122.3 123.4 124.5 125.5 127.4 129.0 130.5 132.1 133.9 135.7 137.7 139.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 8 10 10 10 10 10 10 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 25 23 31 27 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -11. -22. -31. -39. -47. -54. -59. -62. -64. -67. -71. -74. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 3. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 8. 11. 11. 9. 5. 1. -3. -5. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. -0. 1. -4. -7. -13. -17. -21. -21. -21. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 12. 13. 11. -3. -17. -26. -39. -48. -60. -69. -77. -83. -89. -95. -99. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 14.3 121.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032016 BLAS 07/06/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.06 0.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.79 9.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.72 6.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.58 5.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 447.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.41 -3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 5.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.22 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 50% is 7.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 50.0% 33.3% 29.0% 25.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 48.6% 29.0% 21.0% 19.3% 9.7% 4.4% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 45.3% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 47.9% 21.4% 16.7% 15.0% 3.2% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032016 BLAS 07/06/16 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##