* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032016 07/04/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 74 84 94 102 118 124 123 111 99 87 78 67 57 51 44 34 V (KT) LAND 65 74 84 94 102 118 124 123 111 99 87 78 67 57 51 44 34 V (KT) LGEM 65 74 82 90 98 112 118 114 100 85 72 59 47 38 32 28 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 9 12 10 6 4 6 5 5 4 10 3 6 0 12 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 0 0 -1 0 1 7 10 14 13 13 8 14 7 6 SHEAR DIR 35 37 45 40 29 41 41 64 141 177 115 125 156 106 182 259 247 SST (C) 29.4 29.2 28.8 28.8 28.8 27.9 27.8 27.8 26.2 25.6 25.6 25.1 24.1 24.3 24.5 24.9 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 160 157 153 154 154 144 143 143 126 119 119 114 104 106 108 111 110 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -51.8 -52.1 -52.3 -51.4 -51.9 -50.8 -51.5 -51.2 -51.9 -51.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 69 72 74 73 72 69 68 67 62 64 62 58 53 45 37 31 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 23 26 27 28 35 38 40 37 36 33 32 28 24 22 20 16 850 MB ENV VOR -4 1 5 9 9 18 33 47 44 48 44 33 35 31 16 19 3 200 MB DIV 54 66 63 67 43 45 76 90 8 48 53 56 14 -11 13 -7 -11 700-850 TADV 0 0 -3 -5 -5 -3 -2 -2 3 5 8 11 23 13 11 7 5 LAND (KM) 1171 1188 1217 1270 1333 1454 1560 1686 1790 1883 1969 2062 2112 1914 1725 1563 1403 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.3 13.6 13.9 14.1 14.6 15.2 15.9 16.6 17.3 18.1 19.0 20.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.8 115.0 116.1 117.3 118.6 121.0 123.2 125.4 127.5 129.4 131.1 132.8 134.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 10 11 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 24 25 25 35 49 21 18 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 79.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 5. 10. 16. 22. 22. 20. 16. 13. 7. 3. 0. -2. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 2. 6. 11. 16. 24. 23. 13. 3. -3. -8. -13. -15. -15. -15. -14. -14. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 9. 19. 29. 37. 53. 59. 58. 46. 34. 22. 13. 2. -8. -14. -21. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 13.0 113.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032016 BLAS 07/04/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.53 10.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 11.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.47 7.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.48 6.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 205.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.68 -9.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 11.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.92 9.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.29 2.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 49% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 61% is 4.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 48.6% 61.3% 51.4% 42.8% 35.3% 29.5% 19.2% 12.6% Logistic: 59.9% 74.1% 52.3% 45.7% 29.2% 38.0% 15.1% 3.1% Bayesian: 53.2% 85.3% 75.7% 63.0% 33.6% 67.5% 21.0% 0.0% Consensus: 53.9% 73.6% 59.8% 50.5% 32.7% 45.0% 18.4% 5.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032016 BLAS 07/04/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##