* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AGATHA EP022016 07/04/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 34 31 28 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 37 34 31 28 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 39 37 34 31 26 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 23 27 29 31 31 29 32 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 1 2 3 7 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 231 227 222 221 231 240 236 255 264 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 25.3 25.0 25.0 25.2 25.4 24.8 24.9 25.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 116 113 113 115 117 111 112 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 42 40 39 39 35 34 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 9 8 6 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -3 -5 -5 5 1 16 3 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -18 -3 25 21 13 -2 -41 -55 -63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 1 1 0 6 2 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1627 1685 1747 1823 1902 2059 2145 1936 1740 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.2 18.4 18.5 18.6 18.6 18.5 18.4 18.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 126.7 127.7 128.7 129.7 130.7 132.5 134.4 136.4 138.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 769 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -12. -18. -23. -27. -29. -30. -30. -31. -34. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -7. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -12. -18. -25. -34. -43. -47. -51. -54. -56. -58. -59. -62. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.9 126.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022016 AGATHA 07/04/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.40 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.21 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 372.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.30 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 47.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.24 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.15 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022016 AGATHA 07/04/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##