* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032016 07/03/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 57 64 71 78 92 100 105 107 110 108 100 92 85 80 75 69 V (KT) LAND 50 57 64 71 78 92 100 105 107 110 108 100 92 85 80 75 69 V (KT) LGEM 50 59 67 74 82 96 106 112 113 110 100 86 73 64 57 51 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 10 11 10 9 12 10 8 8 5 9 8 5 4 1 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 2 1 1 1 -2 0 4 4 3 7 7 6 6 6 SHEAR DIR 104 89 56 54 50 62 48 50 78 42 75 82 100 132 215 142 249 SST (C) 29.8 29.6 29.6 29.3 28.9 28.7 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.1 26.7 26.1 25.7 25.9 24.9 24.4 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 163 161 161 158 154 152 153 151 149 145 131 124 120 122 111 106 106 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.0 -52.5 -52.8 -51.9 -52.2 -51.7 -52.1 -51.3 -51.7 -51.2 -51.7 -51.4 -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 7 7 8 7 6 5 5 4 5 6 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 71 68 68 68 70 72 72 68 67 67 67 66 60 54 46 42 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 21 22 27 30 33 37 41 42 40 38 36 34 32 29 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -1 -4 -7 -6 5 9 27 36 53 60 68 68 58 60 69 69 200 MB DIV 51 51 40 38 60 93 46 42 27 77 64 56 39 36 -1 -8 7 700-850 TADV 2 4 3 1 0 -3 -4 -4 -5 -1 -2 1 3 3 14 9 8 LAND (KM) 1013 1050 1097 1152 1216 1265 1362 1479 1578 1695 1811 1888 1974 2070 2166 2043 1882 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.8 12.0 12.3 12.6 13.1 13.6 14.1 14.7 15.3 15.9 16.7 17.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.8 110.8 111.8 112.9 113.9 116.1 118.4 120.7 122.9 125.0 127.0 128.9 130.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 11 11 11 12 11 11 10 10 9 8 8 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 35 36 32 25 21 26 48 25 17 19 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 53.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. 14. 13. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. 6. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 19. 25. 32. 32. 28. 23. 19. 15. 12. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 14. 8. 2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 21. 28. 42. 50. 55. 57. 60. 58. 50. 42. 35. 30. 25. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 11.5 109.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032016 BLAS 07/03/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.69 11.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 10.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.50 6.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.42 5.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 162.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.73 -8.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 8.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.27 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.82 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 3.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 42% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 30.4% 45.5% 42.4% 34.7% 20.4% 18.7% 42.5% 19.2% Logistic: 29.2% 59.3% 39.3% 29.2% 16.2% 39.7% 38.9% 22.1% Bayesian: 21.3% 62.8% 32.9% 12.6% 12.9% 50.6% 39.8% 0.9% Consensus: 27.0% 55.9% 38.2% 25.5% 16.5% 36.3% 40.4% 14.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032016 BLAS 07/03/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##