* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO EP022016 07/02/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 35 35 34 34 32 28 22 19 18 21 22 24 24 25 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 35 35 34 34 32 28 22 19 18 21 22 24 24 25 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 36 36 33 29 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 5 3 1 4 9 13 19 25 28 23 16 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -1 -2 -1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 38 62 56 181 231 230 199 208 223 231 229 235 186 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.3 27.5 27.1 27.1 25.9 25.5 25.1 25.9 26.2 26.8 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 147 139 135 135 122 118 113 122 125 132 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -52.7 -52.4 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 7 6 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 55 53 52 52 51 49 44 41 40 38 37 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 11 11 10 9 8 6 6 5 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 36 29 17 10 -4 -11 -12 -7 -5 32 60 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 5 6 10 9 -2 -22 -9 1 -29 -40 -44 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 2 0 5 2 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1190 1229 1269 1300 1339 1448 1583 1696 1844 2028 2214 2175 2012 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.8 16.1 16.8 17.2 17.5 17.5 17.1 16.6 15.9 15.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.4 118.3 119.2 120.2 121.2 123.3 125.3 127.2 129.1 131.0 132.8 134.6 136.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 10 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 43 29 11 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. 23. 23. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. -2. -5. -6. -5. -4. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. -2. -8. -11. -12. -9. -8. -6. -6. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.8 117.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022016 TWO 07/02/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.72 6.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.78 5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 222.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.66 -4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.22 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.79 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.0% 21.4% 17.9% 13.6% 0.0% 0.0% 13.5% 11.1% Logistic: 8.3% 17.9% 14.0% 6.7% 3.2% 2.8% 0.4% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.3% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.5% 13.7% 10.7% 6.8% 1.1% 0.9% 4.6% 4.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022016 TWO 07/02/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##