* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COLIN AL032016 06/07/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 45 43 38 30 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 49 49 48 46 41 34 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 47 45 43 40 33 25 21 18 16 16 17 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 38 44 42 54 71 83 83 67 50 40 21 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -5 7 13 2 -8 -17 -5 10 7 7 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 253 253 243 230 229 232 251 248 258 252 249 256 250 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 27.2 27.4 25.8 23.3 13.8 5.1 5.3 12.5 8.5 8.3 8.3 8.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 134 137 120 102 74 68 67 70 66 64 63 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 144 132 137 118 98 72 67 66 67 65 62 61 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -51.4 -51.2 -51.0 -51.3 -51.0 -49.2 -47.8 -46.8 -46.7 -46.1 -46.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 59 58 57 59 57 48 46 51 59 70 68 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 9 55 76 105 160 167 201 208 156 190 191 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 56 43 66 74 78 102 56 33 44 47 67 34 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 30 18 61 5 -101 -41 21 18 39 18 7 -9 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -54 84 111 398 430 336 150 532 961 1359 1380 1227 1093 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.7 32.5 34.3 36.4 38.4 42.5 45.5 47.6 49.9 52.3 54.0 55.1 56.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 82.1 78.8 75.4 71.3 67.3 59.3 52.2 45.7 39.9 34.7 31.1 28.9 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 29 33 37 39 37 33 27 23 21 17 11 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 6 16 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 24 CX,CY: 20/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -8. -11. -14. -15. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -2. -7. -19. -34. -46. -53. -58. -60. -63. -73. -80. -84. -87. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -0. -2. -7. -15. -25. -36. -45. -54. -59. -66. -78. -84. -88. -91. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 30.7 82.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032016 COLIN 06/07/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 66.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.47 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.43 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.50 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 203.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.72 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032016 COLIN 06/07/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032016 COLIN 06/07/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 49 49 48 46 41 34 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 44 43 41 36 29 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 38 33 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 33 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT