* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE AL032016 06/05/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 33 34 36 35 39 27 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 33 29 35 34 38 25 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 28 25 26 25 24 20 18 19 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 26 25 27 28 39 47 60 64 70 50 36 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 7 7 3 5 4 1 2 0 -3 4 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 225 230 234 235 239 255 247 242 256 261 253 254 252 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.2 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.2 24.6 16.6 5.5 8.7 11.7 10.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 144 141 142 138 138 134 110 79 70 69 70 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 131 133 131 131 129 132 132 106 76 69 68 68 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -52.1 -51.3 -50.9 -51.0 -51.1 -49.7 -48.7 -47.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.9 2.4 1.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 7 5 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 77 76 76 74 66 55 55 53 39 42 46 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 14 15 16 16 18 19 26 23 23 26 27 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 64 61 25 28 -4 71 125 151 161 222 220 180 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 86 98 116 104 119 77 72 75 122 57 48 76 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 9 9 17 30 57 39 -35 94 15 -26 0 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 123 269 418 348 178 -36 96 470 458 314 766 1256 1271 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.7 24.0 25.3 26.7 28.1 31.0 34.3 37.9 41.4 44.6 47.4 49.7 52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 88.1 87.6 87.2 86.3 85.4 81.9 75.6 67.5 59.0 50.4 42.6 35.8 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 15 16 19 26 34 37 36 33 28 25 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 17 36 25 7 7 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 10 CX,CY: 0/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 737 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 17. 19. 20. 18. 17. 16. 16. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. -1. -11. -22. -34. -46. -52. -57. -67. -74. -77. -78. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 11. 7. 7. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 9. -3. -12. -15. -21. -30. -37. -41. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 22.7 88.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032016 THREE 06/05/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 39.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.15 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.65 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.62 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.26 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 25.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.90 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 9.9% 6.5% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 3.7% 2.3% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032016 THREE 06/05/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032016 THREE 06/05/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 32 33 29 35 34 38 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 32 28 34 33 37 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 24 30 29 33 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 17 23 22 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT