* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BONNIE AL022016 06/02/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 39 43 47 52 55 56 57 57 57 58 60 61 62 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 39 43 47 52 55 56 57 57 57 58 60 61 62 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 39 44 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 10 8 5 10 17 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -6 -4 -4 -4 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 210 264 300 275 262 305 303 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.5 25.2 25.7 25.0 24.0 23.6 24.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 99 105 110 105 98 96 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 84 88 93 90 85 84 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.5 -57.2 -57.5 -58.0 -57.9 -57.9 -58.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 4 4 5 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 59 61 61 59 57 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -16 -18 -1 7 20 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 41 19 21 22 2 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 4 0 -10 1 -4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 69 130 201 310 418 617 717 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.3 35.5 35.7 35.9 36.1 36.3 36.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 75.1 74.3 73.5 72.3 71.1 68.2 65.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 10 11 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 5 CX,CY: 4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 747 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 6. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. 19. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 13. 17. 22. 25. 26. 27. 27. 27. 28. 30. 31. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 35.3 75.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022016 BONNIE 06/02/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.85 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.37 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.27 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.25 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.63 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 153.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.77 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 73.7 104.5 to 0.0 0.29 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 13.5% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 10.5% 4.3% 0.3% 0.1% 1.1% 0.6% 0.4% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 8.0% 4.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022016 BONNIE 06/02/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022016 BONNIE 06/02/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 37 39 43 47 52 55 56 57 57 57 58 60 61 62 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 36 40 44 49 52 53 54 54 54 55 57 58 59 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 34 38 43 46 47 48 48 48 49 51 52 53 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 30 35 38 39 40 40 40 41 43 44 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT