* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BONNIE AL022016 05/30/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 32 35 38 38 39 39 39 38 32 32 32 32 34 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 32 35 38 38 39 39 39 38 32 32 32 32 34 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 29 31 34 37 41 46 49 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 18 22 27 22 21 17 16 12 8 17 24 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -4 -2 -6 -7 -2 -7 -3 -5 0 -4 0 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 190 173 175 188 202 174 212 201 244 257 281 270 278 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.2 24.1 24.1 24.0 24.0 24.0 23.7 23.8 22.8 24.7 25.0 24.8 23.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 96 95 95 95 95 95 93 94 89 101 104 103 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 82 80 81 80 80 81 79 80 76 85 88 86 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.6 -57.9 -57.7 -57.4 -57.7 -57.6 -57.5 -57.7 -57.5 -57.7 -57.7 -58.1 -58.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.7 -0.7 -0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 6 7 4 7 4 5 2 3 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 59 57 56 55 58 57 60 60 64 64 61 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -2 12 8 0 8 -7 1 -24 -20 -29 -12 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 48 24 41 38 19 37 24 19 -9 29 2 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -5 2 1 -4 1 0 2 7 9 3 6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1 8 21 35 32 33 26 31 57 167 258 357 341 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.9 33.1 33.2 33.4 33.6 34.0 34.5 35.1 35.7 36.5 37.3 38.0 38.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.6 79.3 79.0 78.6 78.3 77.5 76.8 76.0 75.1 74.0 72.5 70.5 68.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 7 8 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. 0. -1. -3. -6. -13. -18. -20. -21. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 14. 16. 18. 19. 20. 21. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 10. 13. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. 7. 7. 7. 7. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 32.9 79.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022016 BONNIE 05/30/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.56 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.25 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.30 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.47 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 100.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.82 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 87.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.17 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 11.5% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 3.1% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 4.9% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022016 BONNIE 05/30/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022016 BONNIE 05/30/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 30 32 35 38 38 39 39 39 38 32 32 32 32 34 18HR AGO 25 24 25 28 30 33 36 36 37 37 37 36 30 30 30 30 32 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 29 32 32 33 33 33 32 26 26 26 26 28 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 20 23 23 24 24 24 23 17 17 17 17 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT