* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022016 05/28/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 36 37 41 44 45 46 44 46 46 46 45 45 45 46 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 36 37 34 31 35 36 34 36 36 36 35 35 35 36 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 32 29 28 33 35 38 41 45 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 21 22 19 22 22 19 34 19 23 13 15 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -4 -7 -4 -6 -7 -6 -8 -3 -6 -4 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 183 178 184 177 173 172 188 188 207 201 244 231 282 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 26.5 26.8 25.5 24.8 24.6 24.4 24.3 24.2 23.7 23.6 24.0 24.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 119 121 107 100 98 97 97 96 93 92 94 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 96 102 103 91 84 82 82 81 82 79 78 79 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.9 -56.8 -56.8 -57.0 -57.0 -56.6 -57.2 -56.8 -57.2 -56.9 -57.3 -57.1 -57.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 -0.5 0.0 -0.2 0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 4 4 7 4 8 5 7 4 6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 51 54 58 63 58 53 50 51 51 51 51 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 10 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -22 -27 -22 -14 1 11 -9 -17 -7 -9 -26 -53 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 32 26 26 5 37 23 26 20 9 5 4 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 9 7 2 1 0 -5 0 0 0 1 0 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 301 246 140 78 16 -7 -6 29 44 33 37 26 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.0 30.7 31.4 31.9 32.3 32.6 32.9 33.1 33.5 34.0 34.4 34.6 34.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 78.0 78.8 79.5 79.9 80.3 80.3 79.7 79.0 78.2 77.5 76.8 76.3 75.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 8 6 3 2 3 3 4 4 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 7. 6. 4. 4. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 0. -4. -7. -10. -11. -12. -16. -18. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 18. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 7. 11. 14. 15. 16. 14. 16. 16. 16. 15. 15. 15. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 30.0 78.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022016 TWO 05/28/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.59 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.34 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.23 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 151.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.77 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 50.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.52 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 9.2% 6.5% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 1.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 3.6% 2.4% 1.7% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022016 TWO 05/28/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022016 TWO 05/28/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 34 36 37 34 31 35 36 34 36 36 36 35 35 35 36 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 35 32 29 33 34 32 34 34 34 33 33 33 34 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 26 23 27 28 26 28 28 28 27 27 27 28 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 18 15 19 20 18 20 20 20 19 19 19 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT