* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PALI CP012016 01/13/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 78 76 75 71 66 64 61 63 63 64 66 69 65 62 57 49 V (KT) LAND 80 78 76 75 71 66 64 61 63 63 64 66 69 65 62 57 49 V (KT) LGEM 80 78 75 72 68 63 60 57 56 56 57 57 59 61 62 59 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 9 10 12 11 8 7 3 1 3 0 3 9 7 6 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 8 9 8 8 3 -3 1 6 7 9 2 0 4 5 2 SHEAR DIR 168 176 173 166 159 185 212 244 222 341 274 79 137 181 191 169 198 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 148 149 150 150 150 151 153 156 156 154 152 152 152 153 154 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.9 -51.1 -50.6 -50.5 -51.0 -50.8 -51.3 -50.6 -51.3 -50.4 -50.9 -50.3 -51.1 -50.5 -51.4 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 53 51 55 52 54 61 63 64 65 66 66 65 63 60 66 64 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 22 23 20 19 19 18 20 21 22 22 24 24 25 24 23 850 MB ENV VOR 147 158 164 169 174 179 168 157 137 141 146 149 146 140 110 92 84 200 MB DIV 31 34 33 39 26 -16 4 30 84 68 125 122 128 113 161 109 77 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2067 2010 1953 1924 1896 1870 1867 1875 1917 1985 2079 2183 2248 2374 2197 2233 2228 LAT (DEG N) 5.1 4.6 4.1 3.9 3.6 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 171.1 171.4 171.7 172.2 172.7 173.9 175.3 176.7 178.1 179.6 181.2 182.8 184.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 5 4 3 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 83 88 91 87 87 77 70 72 85 102 97 91 99 84 90 95 101 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):190/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -4. -1. 3. 7. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -0. -2. -4. -4. -7. -4. -4. -3. -3. 0. -0. 1. -0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -4. -7. -11. -18. -26. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -9. -14. -16. -19. -17. -17. -16. -14. -11. -15. -18. -23. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 5.1 171.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012016 PALI 01/13/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.35 3.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.11 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 507.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.34 -2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 3.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 87.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.84 2.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.31 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.7% 19.3% 17.1% 13.1% 11.3% 10.8% 8.4% 0.0% Logistic: 6.6% 29.8% 14.5% 10.3% 3.4% 2.1% 0.5% 5.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 6.1% 16.6% 10.6% 7.9% 4.9% 4.4% 3.1% 1.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012016 PALI 01/13/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##