* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PALI CP012016 01/11/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 52 52 53 52 48 45 38 38 36 36 38 38 37 38 36 V (KT) LAND 50 51 52 52 53 52 48 45 38 38 36 36 38 38 37 38 36 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 49 48 46 44 41 37 35 32 29 28 27 26 25 26 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 10 9 13 17 17 20 20 13 9 4 4 9 1 3 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 11 8 8 7 4 8 7 9 4 3 5 4 4 8 6 2 SHEAR DIR 191 213 220 209 215 215 198 187 180 211 247 255 316 283 216 155 158 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 140 141 143 148 150 152 153 153 153 153 154 152 154 153 154 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -51.3 -50.9 -51.0 -50.9 -50.7 -50.6 -50.6 -50.7 -51.1 -51.1 -51.2 -50.9 -51.0 -50.6 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 51 49 47 44 42 42 40 44 49 54 57 63 65 63 66 67 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 22 22 22 23 21 22 19 20 19 20 21 21 20 22 23 850 MB ENV VOR 92 88 91 97 110 149 165 174 185 181 175 158 160 165 153 158 153 200 MB DIV 92 71 63 40 30 22 13 0 11 37 58 60 82 103 112 119 111 700-850 TADV 3 2 -2 -6 -6 -6 -2 -2 -2 0 1 1 1 2 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 2047 2025 2004 2004 2005 2056 2151 2063 1985 1945 1909 1891 1890 1958 1804 1819 1846 LAT (DEG N) 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.0 7.8 7.0 6.1 5.1 4.4 4.0 3.6 3.3 3.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 173.1 172.8 172.5 172.3 172.0 171.7 171.9 172.2 172.7 173.5 174.4 175.4 176.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 4 5 5 5 6 2 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 38 41 43 47 51 64 77 84 87 85 81 78 79 85 83 84 86 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 18. 19. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -13. -14. -14. -12. -11. -10. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. -1. -1. -5. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. -3. -1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -14. -21. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -2. -5. -12. -12. -14. -14. -12. -12. -13. -12. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 8.2 173.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012016 PALI 01/11/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.52 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.08 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.48 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 409.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.45 -3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 4.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.41 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.2% 25.3% 20.0% 14.6% 10.9% 13.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 13.6% 43.2% 22.4% 21.2% 2.4% 8.0% 1.7% 6.3% Bayesian: 0.6% 3.2% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 1.0% 1.4% 0.0% Consensus: 8.5% 23.9% 14.6% 12.1% 4.4% 7.6% 1.0% 2.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012016 PALI 01/11/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##