* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PALI CP012016 01/09/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 44 42 41 39 40 39 40 40 40 39 37 36 39 39 35 V (KT) LAND 50 47 44 42 41 39 40 39 40 40 40 39 37 36 39 39 35 V (KT) LGEM 50 47 43 40 38 36 36 36 37 40 41 40 37 34 33 35 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 16 12 14 17 15 5 7 10 9 13 9 11 5 9 12 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 11 9 6 4 2 1 2 0 5 13 24 20 7 3 0 4 SHEAR DIR 131 128 126 110 120 126 114 134 148 162 160 168 166 167 50 348 350 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.2 28.5 28.8 28.9 28.8 29.1 29.6 29.7 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 138 137 135 136 137 139 143 146 150 151 152 156 159 158 159 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.5 -51.7 -51.5 -51.5 -51.9 -51.3 -52.1 -51.6 -51.9 -51.1 -51.6 -51.2 -51.3 -50.9 -51.6 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 9 8 700-500 MB RH 56 52 52 54 57 57 55 55 53 50 44 45 44 62 67 71 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 22 22 22 23 21 19 19 18 18 18 17 18 19 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR 228 214 190 170 158 147 116 98 89 117 152 160 164 165 163 163 160 200 MB DIV 100 64 30 26 12 10 60 58 44 24 10 18 -18 35 75 76 89 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2088 2097 2107 2121 2136 2166 2197 2245 2292 2306 2256 2201 2145 1831 1698 1655 1629 LAT (DEG N) 7.8 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.3 8.2 7.9 7.5 7.0 6.5 5.9 5.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 173.2 173.5 173.8 174.1 174.4 174.8 175.1 175.4 175.6 175.9 176.2 176.7 177.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 8 11 5 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 48 43 42 39 36 36 39 46 58 70 78 82 82 96 103 103 100 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -8. -10. -10. -11. -9. -10. -9. -7. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -11. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -18. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -10. -11. -10. -10. -10. -11. -13. -14. -11. -11. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 7.8 173.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012016 PALI 01/09/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.51 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 301.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.39 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.78 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 7.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 4.3% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012016 PALI 01/09/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##