* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PALI CP012016 01/08/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 54 53 52 51 49 50 48 46 45 43 39 38 39 38 36 V (KT) LAND 55 56 54 53 52 51 49 50 48 46 45 43 39 38 39 38 36 V (KT) LGEM 55 57 56 53 51 49 46 44 42 40 39 36 32 28 24 22 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 20 14 13 11 12 10 6 6 14 8 8 13 10 6 5 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 11 12 10 10 14 15 10 8 4 12 24 25 27 18 15 5 SHEAR DIR 118 124 131 130 139 123 130 126 146 165 207 182 198 135 87 64 32 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.7 29.0 29.8 29.9 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 147 146 144 143 140 139 138 140 141 145 147 152 156 162 161 161 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -50.7 -50.5 -50.8 -51.0 -50.6 -51.4 -51.0 -51.8 -51.4 -51.6 -51.3 -51.6 -51.2 -51.7 -51.4 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 10 9 10 10 11 11 11 9 700-500 MB RH 65 62 59 58 54 57 56 53 52 55 52 45 44 56 59 62 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 30 26 27 26 26 25 25 23 21 20 20 18 17 16 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR 243 232 231 219 201 170 146 111 86 84 97 125 143 153 157 159 149 200 MB DIV 183 156 117 77 51 26 11 28 54 52 30 17 -14 -5 11 50 59 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -4 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2122 2116 2111 2116 2122 2136 2158 2174 2197 2229 2276 2323 2295 1949 1884 1798 1733 LAT (DEG N) 7.0 7.4 7.7 7.9 8.1 8.3 8.4 8.4 8.3 8.1 7.7 7.3 6.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 172.7 173.0 173.4 173.7 174.0 174.4 174.8 175.0 175.2 175.4 175.6 175.8 175.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 10 15 7 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 68 60 55 49 46 40 36 36 38 45 54 63 71 97 125 127 119 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 444 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -7. -7. -5. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -18. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -16. -17. -16. -17. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 7.0 172.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012016 PALI 01/08/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.53 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 116.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.78 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 274.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 55.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.53 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.72 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 7.5% 3.2% 1.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.6% 1.6% 3.4% 1.0% 0.0% 1.4% 1.7% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 3.0% 2.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012016 PALI 01/08/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##