* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDRA EP222015 11/28/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 46 45 50 61 70 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 2 0 0 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 247 245 238 237 239 247 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.4 27.0 26.7 26.1 24.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 137 133 130 124 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 5 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 51 48 44 37 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 7 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -1 5 10 11 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 44 67 85 83 47 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 33 22 12 2 9 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 206 134 68 79 73 -71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.2 22.1 22.9 23.8 24.6 26.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.2 109.1 108.9 108.8 108.7 108.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 13 9 6 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 799 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 18. 17. 16. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -5. -16. -33. -54. -72. -86. -92. -96. -99.-105.-116.-123. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -8. -13. -16. -17. -14. -12. -11. -9. -8. -8. -8. -9. -7. -8. -9. -8. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -5. -7. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -10. -17. -21. -24. -27. -37. -52. -68. -83. -96.-103.-109.-115.-124.-137.-145. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 21.2 109.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP222015 SANDRA 11/28/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.59 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -40.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 72.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.51 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 189.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.96 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222015 SANDRA 11/28/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##