* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RICK EP212015 11/22/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 27 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 27 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 27 24 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 34 38 44 45 47 54 50 49 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 1 -2 -6 -8 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 242 241 241 238 234 235 240 229 224 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.2 25.7 25.3 25.1 24.6 24.3 24.5 24.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 124 119 114 111 105 101 104 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -52.9 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 52 49 47 43 39 39 42 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 11 10 10 8 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 7 9 -2 -22 -28 -48 -25 -41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 33 34 14 15 -3 -2 -13 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 3 5 3 3 5 6 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1035 1022 1014 1002 992 964 935 914 886 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.3 18.9 19.4 19.8 20.4 20.6 20.5 20.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.9 119.4 119.8 120.1 120.3 120.4 120.2 119.9 119.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 5 4 2 1 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 796 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 11. 13. 14. 14. 12. 10. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -11. -24. -38. -50. -59. -63. -65. -65. -68. -75. -78. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -3. -4. -10. -21. -35. -54. -65. -74. -80. -83. -87. -90. -95.-101. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.8 118.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212015 RICK 11/22/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.52 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 50.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 237.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.59 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212015 RICK 11/22/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##