* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RICK EP212015 11/22/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 26 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 26 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 28 25 23 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 28 32 38 43 46 54 48 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 -1 -2 0 0 -2 -7 -7 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 231 242 240 238 240 237 238 242 231 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.1 26.5 25.9 25.4 24.9 24.5 24.2 24.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 135 128 121 116 109 104 100 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 49 49 50 47 38 35 34 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 13 12 10 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 26 25 19 21 -9 -13 -33 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 44 42 25 26 21 7 -16 -12 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 3 4 3 4 2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1012 1013 1024 1017 1016 1023 1007 983 958 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.6 18.1 18.7 19.2 20.0 20.6 20.9 21.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.5 118.3 119.1 119.6 120.1 120.8 121.1 121.1 121.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 6 4 3 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 786 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 15. 14. 12. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -9. -20. -34. -44. -52. -55. -57. -57. -60. -66. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -6. -11. -19. -32. -47. -57. -65. -69. -72. -76. -79. -85. -90. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.1 117.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212015 RICK 11/22/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.59 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 41.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 218.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 35.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.43 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212015 RICK 11/22/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##