* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RICK EP212015 11/20/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 39 41 43 42 39 36 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 39 41 43 42 39 36 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 36 36 35 33 30 27 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 3 4 8 9 13 22 30 38 43 50 50 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 2 0 0 1 2 1 3 1 -5 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 182 260 256 248 250 231 242 239 244 240 247 243 247 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.2 26.9 26.0 25.2 24.3 23.9 24.0 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 153 150 148 143 134 131 122 113 103 98 98 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.3 -51.2 -51.6 -51.9 -51.8 -52.4 -52.9 -53.7 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 53 52 50 49 48 46 50 49 42 37 37 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 11 10 9 11 9 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 25 21 23 18 24 12 25 15 -13 -11 -10 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 41 40 41 22 6 5 39 31 -26 -15 -12 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 0 2 0 0 1 3 7 5 4 5 1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 644 694 709 700 701 736 752 725 679 635 606 562 528 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.8 18.5 19.5 20.5 21.4 22.0 22.3 22.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.9 110.7 111.6 112.3 113.1 114.5 115.5 116.4 117.0 117.3 117.4 117.1 116.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 6 6 6 6 4 3 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 27 21 20 15 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 16. 18. 18. 17. 15. 14. 13. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 1. -5. -13. -21. -27. -33. -34. -35. -39. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -0. -3. -7. -8. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 7. 4. 1. -10. -22. -31. -40. -42. -45. -50. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.0 109.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212015 RICK 11/20/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.73 6.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.52 3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 223.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.66 -4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.20 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.4% 23.7% 18.4% 13.5% 9.7% 11.3% 13.5% 0.0% Logistic: 5.4% 12.0% 9.6% 2.8% 0.7% 1.6% 0.4% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.3% 12.1% 9.3% 5.5% 3.5% 4.3% 4.6% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212015 RICK 11/20/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##