* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATE AL122015 11/12/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 57 58 57 57 52 45 33 25 23 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 57 58 57 57 52 45 33 25 23 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 57 53 49 46 42 43 45 47 49 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 50 43 40 34 37 29 27 44 46 43 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 16 10 7 0 1 0 9 13 16 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 273 271 261 245 246 250 230 229 233 238 251 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.6 21.4 18.5 16.1 21.3 17.9 14.3 10.9 11.2 10.4 10.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 101 88 78 72 86 77 73 71 70 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 93 80 72 68 77 72 71 69 68 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.7 -57.5 -58.6 -59.2 -59.2 -59.3 -59.3 -57.8 -55.2 -53.7 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.9 -0.6 0.4 1.9 1.1 1.4 1.0 0.6 1.2 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 69 72 72 66 59 58 59 58 59 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 27 31 32 29 24 20 18 19 22 24 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 89 124 148 146 155 206 133 70 106 130 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 100 130 115 91 69 40 68 23 53 48 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 149 129 95 35 2 -31 -69 -117 -140 -67 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 824 723 672 694 750 982 1346 1246 741 465 279 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.3 40.3 41.2 41.8 42.4 43.7 46.5 50.4 53.8 56.8 59.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 54.3 52.0 49.6 47.7 45.8 41.3 35.1 28.0 21.3 15.3 9.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 29 20 18 15 17 21 28 29 25 22 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 37 CX,CY: 34/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -6. -8. -10. -14. -18. -23. -27. -30. -33. -36. -40. -41. -42. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -16. -22. -26. -30. -35. -40. -47. -52. -54. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 13. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 22. 25. 27. 29. 30. 30. 28. 24. 21. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 3. 4. 2. -2. -7. -11. -11. -8. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. -0. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -14. -15. -16. -16. -17. -18. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -2. -3. -3. -8. -15. -27. -35. -37. -38. -42. -48. -56. -63. -69. -72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 39.3 54.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122015 KATE 11/12/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 59.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.60 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.76 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 103.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.82 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 99.3 104.5 to 0.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122015 KATE 11/12/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122015 KATE 11/12/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 57 58 57 57 52 45 33 25 23 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 60 59 59 54 47 35 27 25 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 55 55 50 43 31 23 21 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 50 45 38 26 18 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT