* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATE AL122015 11/10/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 63 67 71 77 82 73 65 55 43 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 62 63 67 71 77 82 73 65 55 43 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 63 65 67 70 71 62 50 44 45 45 41 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 26 30 31 35 47 37 42 37 37 51 57 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 7 6 13 9 7 -1 0 4 12 19 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 230 241 261 269 277 291 275 270 250 233 222 225 225 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.8 24.9 24.7 24.1 23.8 23.7 21.2 12.7 18.3 16.1 12.0 9.5 9.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 117 110 109 105 103 100 85 67 78 75 71 70 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 109 104 103 100 96 90 76 65 72 71 69 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.9 -55.1 -55.3 -55.4 -56.7 -57.5 -57.5 -56.6 -56.0 -54.9 -52.8 -50.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.1 0.2 -0.1 1.9 1.6 1.7 1.5 -0.1 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 52 50 54 59 63 62 43 47 54 48 45 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 16 21 29 33 27 25 22 20 17 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 65 92 120 127 181 223 218 143 126 159 123 195 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 72 87 100 118 136 111 46 21 21 11 3 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 17 31 66 136 165 67 -18 -58 -59 -224 -162 -49 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 460 529 681 818 822 816 646 634 729 1025 1432 1098 754 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.2 32.7 34.1 35.5 36.8 39.3 41.0 41.9 43.6 46.1 49.4 53.6 57.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 74.0 71.3 68.5 65.0 61.4 55.3 51.5 48.8 44.9 39.5 33.4 26.7 20.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 24 27 30 32 30 22 14 14 20 25 28 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 21 CX,CY: 12/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 715 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -14. -18. -21. -25. -29. -32. -33. -35. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -12. -17. -22. -25. -30. -37. -43. -49. -53. -56. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 16. 17. 17. 17. 16. 13. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 2. 6. 13. 20. 16. 13. 10. 6. 0. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 8. 8. 5. 3. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 7. 11. 17. 22. 13. 5. -5. -17. -33. -45. -51. -54. -58. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 31.2 74.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122015 KATE 11/10/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 43.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.04 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.14 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.61 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.68 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 350.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.56 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.79 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 13.5% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 1.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 5.1% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122015 KATE 11/10/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122015 KATE 11/10/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 6( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 62 63 67 71 77 82 73 65 55 43 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 60 64 68 74 79 70 62 52 40 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 60 64 70 75 66 58 48 36 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 54 60 65 56 48 38 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT