* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATE AL122015 11/10/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 51 52 57 64 65 66 65 63 60 57 54 51 50 48 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 51 52 57 64 65 66 65 63 60 57 54 51 50 48 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 49 50 51 56 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 15 17 19 22 31 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 0 6 6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 212 236 237 244 246 271 265 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.0 25.8 25.3 24.8 24.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 129 127 116 112 109 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 119 116 115 107 105 102 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -54.8 -55.1 -55.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.9 2.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 5 6 5 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 64 59 55 49 52 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 11 10 13 20 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -4 24 63 90 111 162 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 59 50 66 85 90 122 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 11 15 21 20 68 -43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 392 455 540 513 506 759 680 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.7 28.1 29.4 30.9 32.4 35.6 38.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 76.1 75.6 75.2 73.5 71.8 66.0 60.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 17 21 25 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 36 32 10 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 15 CX,CY: -2/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -6. -10. -13. -16. -19. -21. -25. -27. -28. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. 2. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 12. 19. 20. 21. 20. 18. 15. 12. 9. 6. 5. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 26.7 76.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122015 KATE 11/10/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.51 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.35 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.46 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 267.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.65 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.76 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 13.7% 9.2% 6.5% 5.7% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 4.5% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 6.1% 3.7% 2.3% 1.9% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122015 KATE 11/10/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122015 KATE 11/10/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 49 51 52 57 64 65 66 65 63 60 57 54 51 50 48 18HR AGO 45 44 46 48 49 54 61 62 63 62 60 57 54 51 48 47 45 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 44 49 56 57 58 57 55 52 49 46 43 42 40 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 41 48 49 50 49 47 44 41 38 35 34 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT