* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/22/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 105 105 103 100 91 78 72 66 62 55 47 39 38 37 37 37 V (KT) LAND 105 105 105 103 100 91 78 72 66 62 55 47 39 38 37 37 37 V (KT) LGEM 105 104 102 99 96 86 73 61 52 45 39 33 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 5 6 7 9 18 25 21 17 20 28 33 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 1 0 1 5 2 7 5 7 14 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 142 139 228 231 219 240 245 249 254 250 241 248 260 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.5 27.3 26.9 26.6 26.1 25.7 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 144 144 144 142 138 135 131 129 125 121 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -51.2 -51.3 -51.2 -51.2 -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 -51.0 -51.6 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 6 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 65 59 56 52 53 51 53 55 59 57 53 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 31 34 34 33 35 32 32 31 30 28 25 22 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 96 97 99 99 94 84 88 74 59 37 6 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 120 122 91 93 75 69 58 18 -11 16 33 -9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 2 5 5 3 6 5 12 11 10 10 14 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1214 1139 1064 1005 949 871 855 879 945 1052 1218 1442 1672 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.4 14.0 14.7 15.3 16.7 18.1 19.3 20.5 21.5 22.9 24.6 26.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 145.8 146.2 146.6 146.8 147.0 147.1 146.8 146.4 145.8 144.9 143.6 141.9 140.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 8 11 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 14 7 3 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -8. -15. -22. -28. -34. -38. -41. -44. -45. -46. -48. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -4. -3. -4. -8. -11. -13. -14. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 2. 2. 1. 3. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. -2. -5. -14. -27. -33. -39. -43. -50. -58. -66. -67. -68. -68. -68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 12.8 145.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/22/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.10 0.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.63 4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.69 4.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 496.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.36 -2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.18 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.8% 23.1% 18.5% 13.9% 10.7% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 9.3% 4.4% 4.1% 1.8% 1.3% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.2% 11.0% 7.7% 6.1% 4.2% 4.1% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/22/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##