* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PATRICIA EP202015 10/22/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 64 74 85 93 106 106 90 74 65 58 53 51 48 45 42 39 V (KT) LAND 55 64 74 85 93 106 106 55 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 55 63 72 81 91 105 104 55 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 3 2 5 9 8 17 29 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 0 -4 -2 -2 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 23 18 344 223 197 149 174 216 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.1 30.3 30.3 30.6 30.8 30.4 30.5 29.3 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 169 169 171 171 169 171 159 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.4 -51.5 -50.9 -50.3 -50.9 -50.5 -50.8 -50.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 10 11 9 10 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 81 78 78 74 72 66 57 52 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 17 19 20 19 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 48 44 37 47 64 81 102 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 94 73 97 129 145 131 100 95 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -10 -13 -11 -8 -3 0 -4 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 356 359 362 339 294 185 5 -66 -201 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.8 14.2 14.9 15.5 17.1 19.2 21.7 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 99.9 101.0 102.1 102.9 103.7 104.6 104.8 104.7 104.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 9 10 11 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 60 58 57 63 62 40 45 23 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 81.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 18. 21. 23. 26. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 2. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. RI POTENTIAL 2. 6. 11. 16. 25. 23. 13. 3. -3. -9. -13. -15. -15. -15. -15. -14. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 9. 19. 30. 38. 51. 51. 35. 19. 10. 3. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 13.3 99.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202015 PATRICIA 10/22/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.73 23.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 17.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.67 16.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 107.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.73 16.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 55.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.85 -18.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 18.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 15.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 60.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.57 6.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.59 1.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 61% is 9.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 100% is 8.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 99% is 11.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 98% is 15.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 89% is 21.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 95% is 14.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 88% is 15.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 52% is 11.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 61.4% 100.0% 99.0% 97.8% 89.1% 95.2% 88.4% 51.8% Logistic: 84.5% 95.3% 92.2% 88.3% 79.3% 91.7% 53.2% 2.0% Bayesian: 86.5% 95.2% 97.6% 97.5% 95.0% 96.0% 88.1% 1.6% Consensus: 77.4% 96.9% 96.3% 94.5% 87.8% 94.3% 76.6% 18.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202015 PATRICIA 10/22/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##