* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PATRICIA EP202015 10/21/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 45 52 60 76 84 80 65 56 44 41 40 40 39 37 37 V (KT) LAND 35 39 45 52 60 76 84 67 41 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 43 47 59 71 60 38 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 5 7 5 5 7 10 21 28 34 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 -2 -1 -2 -4 -2 0 0 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 5 21 31 8 304 210 198 188 224 221 229 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.2 30.3 30.7 30.5 30.0 29.6 28.7 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 165 168 168 171 170 165 160 150 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.6 -51.3 -51.7 -51.8 -50.5 -51.2 -50.6 -51.2 -50.6 -51.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 8 7 8 11 10 11 7 9 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 83 80 83 82 80 75 69 62 57 54 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 14 15 16 21 20 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 52 56 56 45 37 52 71 84 80 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 70 99 106 80 56 102 126 135 105 66 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -9 -8 -5 0 -2 -5 2 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 319 310 305 298 294 259 110 -34 -106 -132 -175 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.2 13.4 13.9 14.4 15.6 17.3 19.2 20.9 22.1 23.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.9 97.9 98.9 100.0 101.0 102.7 103.6 104.0 104.2 104.2 104.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 11 10 10 9 9 7 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 64 64 56 54 52 53 38 35 27 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 474 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 67.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 23. 26. 29. 31. 34. 37. 40. 42. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 1. -3. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 18. 10. 3. -2. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 17. 25. 41. 49. 45. 30. 21. 9. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.9 96.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202015 PATRICIA 10/21/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.86 11.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 4.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.69 7.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.60 5.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 3.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.91 -8.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 58.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.55 2.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.72 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 3.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 69% is 11.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 62% is 13.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.3% 46.1% 32.4% 20.0% 17.9% 19.0% 69.1% 61.7% Logistic: 11.5% 65.4% 41.6% 25.5% 9.5% 49.1% 65.6% 16.6% Bayesian: 6.5% 42.9% 32.6% 18.1% 2.6% 38.8% 36.7% 41.4% Consensus: 10.5% 51.5% 35.5% 21.2% 10.0% 35.6% 57.1% 39.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202015 PATRICIA 10/21/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##