* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/18/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 66 73 81 93 103 101 100 98 93 89 82 77 74 70 64 V (KT) LAND 55 60 66 73 81 93 103 101 100 98 93 89 82 77 74 70 64 V (KT) LGEM 55 59 63 68 72 82 93 104 110 108 103 94 85 81 76 71 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 13 10 9 8 3 3 6 11 9 14 14 19 25 39 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 1 0 -3 -6 -6 -4 -2 1 2 4 2 7 4 5 SHEAR DIR 330 336 342 346 1 14 342 220 182 197 203 201 217 223 227 233 230 SST (C) 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.1 27.4 26.7 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 155 154 155 158 157 158 156 154 153 151 151 145 137 130 125 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -51.3 -51.8 -51.3 -51.7 -50.9 -51.5 -50.9 -51.4 -51.1 -51.6 -51.3 -51.4 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.8 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 65 67 69 70 71 74 74 70 69 66 63 56 54 52 55 55 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 25 26 28 29 32 32 33 34 34 36 34 32 33 32 32 850 MB ENV VOR 11 10 9 15 19 32 47 37 59 68 102 103 110 94 94 91 107 200 MB DIV 86 100 117 131 166 143 104 70 101 93 97 55 44 54 90 65 40 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -5 -5 -6 -5 -2 3 4 6 8 6 7 8 8 15 22 LAND (KM) 2613 2669 2669 2568 2467 2281 2084 1888 1712 1563 1437 1369 1349 1404 1506 1653 1798 LAT (DEG N) 9.1 9.3 9.4 9.7 9.9 10.5 11.3 12.3 13.3 14.4 15.5 16.6 17.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 130.6 131.5 132.3 133.2 134.1 135.7 137.3 138.8 140.1 141.1 141.9 142.2 142.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 7 8 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 26 24 22 21 21 28 16 21 20 23 23 25 30 25 11 5 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 66.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 16. 17. 17. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 3. -1. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 11. 14. 17. 20. 20. 20. 16. 13. 12. 10. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 18. 10. 3. -2. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 18. 26. 38. 48. 46. 45. 43. 38. 34. 27. 22. 19. 15. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 9.1 130.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/18/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.61 10.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 7.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.48 6.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 120.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.79 10.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 144.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.75 -9.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 10.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 5.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.20 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 54% is 4.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 58% is 9.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 53% is 11.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.8% 53.8% 44.7% 29.9% 20.4% 26.2% 57.7% 53.1% Logistic: 8.7% 40.6% 19.4% 11.6% 5.8% 19.0% 44.7% 34.9% Bayesian: 3.8% 31.0% 35.8% 13.6% 0.3% 7.6% 10.5% 21.7% Consensus: 9.1% 41.8% 33.3% 18.4% 8.8% 17.6% 37.6% 36.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/18/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##